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Current Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 201609
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains
mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe
winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.
...Central Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking
eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly
low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern
CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately
unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds
continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central
WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This
activity will spread eastward into a progressively more
moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor
of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast
CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes.
Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main
concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening
and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of
the night.
...Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today
over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered
afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL
east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches,
coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates
suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most
intense cores.
..Hart/Moore.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET <a href="archive/2026/KWNSPTSDY1_202606201630.txt">WUUS01 PTSDY1</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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Current Excessive Rainfall Discussion Issued by the Weather Prediction Center
Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1250 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sat Jun 20 2026 - 12Z Sun Jun 21 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...Central Plains and Missouri Valley... A large area of heavy rain associated with a developing MCS starting this evening and continuing into early Sunday is expected to bring widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for numerous instances of flash flooding currently is expected across southeastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, and far northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa. Storms are expected to initiate Saturday afternoon with peak heating over the central High Plains and ahead of a racing shortwave crossing the Rockies. Meanwhile, a LLJ of southeasterly flow will increase WAA and pump deep Gulf moisture up the Plains through the day. This will force the dryline to race eastward in response. The warm front associated with the low and the dry line will uplift the deep moisture, resulting in widespread shower and thunderstorm development across Nebraska as early as this afternoon. These storms are expected to grow upscale into an expansive, organized convective system into the evening and overnight hours that will then track southeasterly across the risk area. The latest deterministic guidance shows areal average rainfall totals along the expected path of the MCS in the 2-4" range with locally higher amounts of 4-6", more than sufficient to lead to potentially widespread flash flooding, which has prompted the level 3/4 Moderate Risk. As is usually the case with convective systems the exact path and duration will be determined by more mesoscale details than the guidance can typically pin down. Some CAMs (like the NAM3k) favor the northern axis of heavy rain across southeast Nebraska closer to the developing surface low/MCV, whereas the 00z RRFS favors a southern solution and heaviest rainfall across central Kansas. Regardless, PWs surging to 2" by tonight and increased forcing will support rainfall rates within thunderstorms to be intense and around 2-3"/hr. These rates could be exacerbated by cell mergers and brief training to quickly lead to flash flooding concerns. The 00Z REFS and HREF both highlight neighborhood probabilities of 3" per 6-hrs (above local FFG) around 40-50%+ within the MDT through 12Z Sun and then extending into the Day 2 period. Should these heavier rates intersect with urban area, significant impacts from flash flooding cannot be ruled out. ...Eastern Texas through the Southeast... 1600Z Update... Per collaboration with the affected WFOs, have expanded the Slight Risk down the Middle and Lower TX Coast (and adjacent inland counties), based on the current observational/mesoanalysis trends along with the recent (12Z) high-res CAM trends and HREF probabilistic suite. Airmass remains primed for highly efficient rainfall rates, with PWs over 2.25" and mixed-layer CAPEs quite robust between 2000-3000 J/Kg. All ahead of a slow-moving upper level vort lobe along/inland of the Gulf Coast (MCV over S. TX), where Gulf breezes will enhance the low-level moisture convergence farther inland. Hurley Previous discussion... One more day of scattered slow-moving storms is expected today across the Deep South between eastern TX and southeast GA/northeast FL. The lingering frontal boundary draped north of the Gulf Coast will begin to lift north during the day and leave convection widely scattered, but with one area of more focused activity between central MS and coastal southeast GA/northeast FL. This is likely during the morning and midday hours and supported by most CAMs as high pressure over the Tennessee Valley keeps the thermal/moisture gradient rather sharp and focuses ongoing thunderstorm activity within PWs above 2". Both the 00Z REFS and 00Z HREF highlight elevated chances (40-50%) for at least 3" in 6-hrs near Birmingham, AL. This could be an area within the SLGT risk that sees more severe flash flood impacts should a higher-end scenario develop. Lingering MCV(s) across eastern TX and the Lower Mississippi Valley could also add a focus for more organized thunderstorm activity, while also adding to the short term uncertainty. The soils in this region remain extremely saturated and sensitive to additional intense rainfall rates, leading to the potential for scattered instances of flash flooding and the SLGT risk of excessive rainfall, even for locations that can typically take 2-3" of rain. Snell Day 1 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt</u></a>
Tomorrow's Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 201723
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley
to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large
to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could
be strong) will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will
translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with
a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a
southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains
into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east
into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low
tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will
trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower
MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by
mid to late afternoon.
...Missouri into the OH Valley...
Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one
or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from
eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models
signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the
presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential
for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail
across MO into western IL.
Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in
the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing
outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the
lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring
along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake
of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong
instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south
of the composite boundary.
Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate
relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of
the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon
into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or
bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong
tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the
initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is
considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary
location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher
severe-weather probabilities for this region.
...Central High Plains...
A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt
mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis
along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead
of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest
boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate
afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to
support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail.
Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred
storm development and residence slightly east across portions of
western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather
probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal
into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat
transitioning more to damaging winds.
...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau...
High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale
surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the
trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature
should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to
widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to
strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support
supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very
large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector
to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms
within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential
increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into
one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat
spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night.
..Mead.. 06/20/2026
CLICK TO GET <a href="archive/2026/KWNSPTSDY2_202606201730.txt">WUUS02 PTSDY2</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Copyright 2026 Chris Rhodes Storm Photographer
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