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Current Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 040045
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations
extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western
LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the
northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A
recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but
the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy
heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along
the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm
intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for
organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic
conditions.
..Moore.. 02/04/2026
CLICK TO GET <a href="/products/outlook/archive/2026/KWNSPTSDY1_202602040100.txt">WUUS01 PTSDY1</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Current Excessive Rainfall Discussion Issued by the Weather Prediction Center
Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 705 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Pereira Day 1 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt</u></a>
Tomorrow's Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 031631
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated Wednesday with a
longwave trough over the East and an anticyclone/ridge in the West.
A positive-tilt shortwave impulse digging through the basal portion
of the trough will yield weak cyclogenesis over the Southeast. A
surface cold front will trail southwestward from this cyclone into
the northwest Gulf on Wednesday morning. A combination of 50s
boundary-layer dew points and weak mid-level lapse rates should
support only scant surface to slightly elevated buoyancy near the
front. Low thunder probabilities are apparent during the morning to
afternoon, along a portion of the Gulf Coast from far southeast LA
to the FL Panhandle. The paucity of instability and modest
lower-level shear should minimize severe-storm potential.
..Grams.. 02/03/2026
CLICK TO GET <a href="/products/outlook/archive/2026/KWNSPTSDY2_202602031730.txt">WUUS02 PTSDY2</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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Copyright 2026 Chris Rhodes Storm Photographer
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