Severe Weather Center

Current Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center

   SPC AC 060549

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
   ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
   evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
   Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
   will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
   before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late
   evening/overnight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
   Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
   period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
   southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
   Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
   along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
   portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
   afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
   portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
   along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
   will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
   grow upscale through the evening.

   ...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
   Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
   across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
   northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
   broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
   southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
   strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
   moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
   possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
   afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
   corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
   increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
   increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
   form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
   all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
   winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
   region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
   occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
   cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
   confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

   As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with
   tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat
   continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and
   central/southern Georgia.

   ...Texas...
   Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front
   and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern
   Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few
   instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is
   expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will
   be located to the east.

   ..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026

   CLICK TO GET <a href="archive/2026/KWNSPTSDY1_202605061200.txt">WUUS01 PTSDY1</a> PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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Current Excessive Rainfall Discussion Issued by the Weather Prediction Center

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed May 06 2026 - 12Z Thu May 07 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST...

On-going convection at the start of the Day 1 period will linger
over portions of Arkansas. northern Mississippi and adjacent
portions of Tennessee as a cold front progresses into a most and
unstable atmosphere. Given the alignment of the storm motion and
the boundary...some training will continue with localized rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches before convection wanes. WPC Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion was issued covering this area valid
through 1320Z.

The high-resolution guidance continued to struggle at eh 06/00Z
production cycle and continued with their earlier idea of bimodal
distribution to the heavy rainfall while coarser scale models
tended to have a more uniform distribution of rainfall but with
different orientations. Both the Latest HREF/RRFS guidance showed
some 15+ percent neighborhood probabilities of 24 hr QPF exceeding
10 year ARIs over portions of Mississippi and Alabama. This led to
a southward expansion of the Slight Risk area. Elsewhere...rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour should be reachable within the
Slight Risk area but the signals as to where this happens are not
as strong. With increasing input from the convective allowing
models...further increases in expected rainfall amounts and better
agreement are possible which might result in an upgrade with future
updates.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt</u></a>